Strategic public health policy and planning: an introduction to systems thinking and modelling for evidence-based decision making

The course is a “hands on” entry level course to expose participants to the principles of Systems Thinking & System Dynamics Modelling. Efficient public health policy prioritization requires that we understand how systems function and how their various parts are interrelated. Changing one part may impact another and then another, or may even create new challenges. Using systems thinking and system dynamics modelling facilitates an understanding and appreciation of how various policies, interventions, solutions, and changes in health systems can be prioritized in accordance with needs and resources.

Public Health policy examples of the use of these techniques will focus on the cost and socio-economic implications of infectious disease; particularly, Antimicrobial Resistance (AMR), chronic disease prevention, and mental health systems strengthening. Using an interdisciplinary approach that brings together systems thinking, decision analysis (including economic evaluation) and complex public health challenges, participants will learn how to model and analyze various alternative strategies, including the use of optimization techniques to find the “best’ solution.  

This 3-day course will expose participants to:

• The ‘what and why’ of systems modelling and simulation;
• Real-world applications that informed policy and planning through the participatory development of decision support tools;
• Exposure to system dynamics modelling and its practical applications plus an overview of other systems modelling methods available in the toolbox;
• A hands-on approach to building simple prototype models with interactive user interfaces.

‍Day 1 (10.30 – 16.30 CEST): Systems modelling to address public health challenges: The What and Why.
This short course will be orientated to researchers, public health practitioners, and decision makers who may be interested in the application of systems modelling to support policy and planning decisions. Lectures will include insights from real-world applications of systems modelling to infectious disease transmission and mental health. Day 1 lectures will also provide an introduction to the process of causal loop diagramming and the architecture of system dynamics modelling, followed by a step-by-step guide to its application to population dynamics and simple infectious disease models - using the example of Antimicrobial Resistance (AMR).‍

Day 2 (9.00 – 15.00 CEST): Integrating economic analyses into system dynamics models to support policy and planning.
A series of lectures will provide an introduction to ‘dynamic economic evaluation’ including a step-by-step guide to incorporating costs into system dynamics models. Participants will have the opportunity to exercise the systems model through scenario testing to explore the impact of alternative assumptions and derive insights relevant to strategic decision making (e.g. implications of short term vs. long term time horizons). ‍

Day 3 (9.00 – 15.00 CEST): Policy maker for a day – further exercising of systems models to support policy and planning.
A series of hands-on activities that socialize systems modelling for the purpose of supporting policy and planning. Participants will engage in exercises to understand model uncertainty, sensitivity analyses, and optimization. Multiple models will be demonstrated, with participants enabled to interact with them to understand a range of systems insights relevant to public health applications including infectious disease control, chronic disease prevention, and mental health systems strengthening.

Across the three days attendees may choose to engage with the step-by-step model building process (with in person support) to build basic technical competency in the methods or may simply wish to listen and understand it conceptually so as to become more informed users of systems models. All participants must attend onsite.

By the end of the course participants will be able to:

• Recognize a Systemic Problem;
• Draw a Causal Loop Diagram;
• Build a System Dynamics model of a Public Health Issue;
• Perform an economic evaluation of proposed interventions;
• Explain Complex Systemic problems to others in a transparent and convincing manner.

• Basic numeracy & computer skills;
• Participants will be provided with a free Workshop copy of the “Stella” software. It is preferrable, but not essential, that all participants familiarize themselves with the use of this software prior to the start of the course (https://www.iseesystems.com/resources/tutorials/).

• Lectures;
• Interactive Discussions;
• Small Group CLD drawing;
• Student Presentations;
• Hands on Computer modelling.

To get the Certificate of completion and the 1 ECTS participants MUST:

• Attend at least 80%of the course;
• Attend the plenary offered during the first day of the course;
• Actively contribute to classes and activities.

The facilitators plan to be in Lugano, and the course will be held entirely on-site. In case of a change of regional policies (e.g., Covid) or personal reasons, the course could change to online or hybrid format. The course will take place at Università della Svizzera italiana (USI).

For course pricing information, see here. Discounts are available for participants from LMICs, PhD and Master Students, and Students and Employees from the LSS Partner Universities (SSPH+, USI, SUPSI, and SWISS TPH).